A look at the day ahead in markets from Mike Dolan.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., March 27, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidMarkets seem caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Easing concerns about bank stability this week have merely re-introduced interest rate risk, reining in any suggestion of a runaway relief rally as the first quarter closes on Friday. While nerves persist over March bank failures and contagion fears, central banks are still faced with punchy growth and inflation and will likely switch attention back to cooling that down once they're assured banks can take the strain.
While a possible credit crunch from the whole disturbance may do that job for them, the overall impact on new lending and confidence is as yet unclear. The extent to which depositors and the public at large have been spooked by the episode may be at least partly revealed by March U.S. consumer confidence numbers out later on Tuesday.The chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike in this cycle has moved back to 50% - up from just 30% early on Monday - and two-year Treasury yields regained a foothold back above 4%. Stress-related dollar demand ebbed somewhat.
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