Netflix’s Price Hike: The Math Behind the Plan

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Netflix’s Price Hike: The Math Behind the Plan
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The streamer appears to be reorienting around maximizing average revenue per user for its 74 million-plus U.S. and Canadian subs.

Cahall on Jan. 18 highlighted that management’s decision to raise prices could be a positive sign for recent subscriber trends. “We think Netflix tends to raise prices when churn is low, and this could stimulate more bullish views around fourth quarter 2021 and 2022 net adds,” he wrote.

Credit Suisse’s Douglas Mitchelson commented on price hikes even before they were announced, pointing out investor “concerns that Netflix will have a harder time raising prices when there is more competition in the marketplace.” But he also highlighted a counterpoint, arguing that “Netflix’s usage would suggest the service is a very cheap entertainment option, even for international households.”

According to the company’s last quarterly financial report, North America already had the highest ARPU in the world at $14.68, up from $13.40 a year earlier. The new price hikes will only drive that figure higher. Many of Netflix’s competitors, meanwhile, are seeing their ARPU decline globally as they seek scale in North America and expand into new markets. Disney+’s ARPU fell 9 percent to $4.12 per subscriber in fiscal Q4, while HBO Max’s ARPU began to fall in Q3 2021 following the launch of the less-expensive ad-supported tier last June. It ended Q3 at $11.82 per subscriber.

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