Famed economist David Rosenberg explains why he puts the odds of a recession at 80%. He says the Fed is squarely to blame.
It loosely translates to "the bets are made," and it's a gambling reference to when the roulette wheel is spinning.
He was referring to the Fed's nine interest-rate hikes between 2015 and 2018, implemented to normalize policy after years of emergency measures spurred by the Great Recession. "What if I told you that historically, when the Fed engaged in a 400 basis point-plus tightening cycle, the odds of recession in the next 12 to 24 months was 80%," Rosenberg said.
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