'A historically uninformed delusion': One expert warns stocks are headed for their worst returns in history — and says a 50-65% market crash is 'somewhat optimistic'
"As I've demonstrated a thousand ways, regardless of the impact of speculation or risk-aversion over shorter portions of the market cycle, the higher the level of market valuations, the lower the. "Notably, both of these measures presently match or exceed their 1929 extremes."
Today, by Hussman's calculations, valuations are insinuating the worst total return outlook for a portfolio in history. In the past, Hussman has emphasized the need for weakening internals to confirm the market's inability to trend higher.Below is a chart of the S&P 500 depicted against the percent of stocks above their 200-day moving averages. Clearly, a divergence is afoot, implying that the internals watched by Hussman are softening. Conventional wisdom says that the Federal Reserve should be able to step in to buoy markets the midst of a downturn. Hussman disagrees.
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