'No, Sen. Warren: There’s no crash coming' says TimMullaney.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is stirring things up again, this time with a piece on Medium.com arguing that the U.S. economy is stumbling toward a crisis akin to what the whole world lived through just 10 years ago.No, there’s no crisis. Whether there’s even a recession anywhere near is a live question . Heck, my TV told me just yesterday, literally, that we’re in a boom, pointing to the Standard & Poor’s 500 SPX, +0.68% .
Credit-card delinquency rates, while up a bit since 2015, are lower than at any point between 1991 and 2013. . One can like or dislike the fact that leveraged lending as a market has grown to $1.4 trillion from $800 million over five years, according to Moody’s Analytics. But companies are having no repayment issues — and, absent a sudden crisis, could easily reduce debt by selling stock.
The argument here has been that the main thing wrong with manufacturing is Trump’s trade bellicosity, and that he is easily cowed away from it when stocks fall. The first half of 2019 supports this. Conclusions Bottom line: As investors, don’t worry about Warren’s piece much. Any crisis is years out — unlikely, and easily averted between now and then. There are lots of outcomes between Doom and Boom — it’s much easier to make a case for a mild 2001-like downturn than a new crash.
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