Federal meteorologists are forecasting a record-shattering seventh straight unusually busy Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Tuesday that the summer in the Atlantic will produce 14 to 21 named storms, six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six turbo-charging into major hurricanes with winds greater than 110 mph. Even with normals shifting upwards to reflect more active storm seasons in recent decades, these predictions are above the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Several outside hurricane experts agree with NOAA that the Atlantic conditions are ripe for yet another active hurricane season. They say La Nina reduces wind shear that could decapitate storms. The warmer water — about half a degree warmer than last year in storm-forming areas, according to Rosencrans — serves as hurricane fuel. A reduction in pollution particles in the air has taken away artificial cooling in the Atlantic and a new study links that to increasing storms.
NOAA said there’s a 65% chance for an “above-normal” hurricane season, a 25% chance for a normal season and only a one in 10 chance for an unusually quiet season. The average ACE since 1950 is just shy of 100, while the last six years have ranged from 132 to 225 in 2017.That stretch of six straight above-average years is a record, smashing the old mark of three-in-a-row, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher and seasonal forecaster Phil Klotzbach. He said it is highly likely that the record will stretch to seven this year.
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