Manufacturing activity continued to lag in November amid a lag in inventories and new orders, according to the latest ISM Manufacturing reading released Monday.
Though the ISM reading is usually reported as a simple number, it actually denotes the percentage of manufacturers planning to expand operations. A reading below 50 represents contraction.
New orders slumped to 47.2, down 1.9 percentage points from October's 49.1. Inventories, which are a key input for gross domestic product, came in at 45.5, down 3.4 points from the previous month.Recession worries have ebbed from earlier in the year, when the Treasury yield curve was inverted and flashing what has been a reliable 12-month recession indicator for the past 50 years. GDP growth has averaged around 2.4% in 2019, with the third quarter coming in at 2.1%.
Manufacturing is considered a reliable bellwether for how the rest of the economy is doing, though it comprises only about one-fifth of GDP. In a related release, the Markit manufacturing reading, known as the Purchasing Managers Index, indicated expansion, coming in at 52.6, just above expectations and a bit better than the 51.3 October reading.
The Markit PMI growth reflected an uptick in production and new orders as well as strength in employment indicators. It was the strongest reading in seven months.
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