Obamacare could provide a cautionary tale for major policy proposals like Medicare for All or the Green New Deal. Via FiveThirtyEight:
2014 numbers are used because the ACA became significantly more popular after President Trump took office and the chances of repealing the law increased.Still, if Americans’ overall attitudes toward the ACA were a weighted average of their views on its individual parts, the ACA should have been popular. But that clearly wasn’t the case: In that KFF survey, 41 percent had a favorable view of the law overall compared with 46 percent who had an unfavorable view.
To better understand what Americans knew about other aspects of the law, Cornell University’s Will Hobbs and I conducted an online survey in the fall of 2018 where we asked respondents whether a variety of policies were included in the original ACA. This survey wasn’t representative — respondents were not randomly selected from the general population, and instead opted to take an online survey.
So what does this mean for major policy proposals like Medicare for All or the Green New Deal? Well, the ACA provides a cautionary tale. Initial polling about major initiatives can be misleading. And even if most elements of a policy poll well, public opinion may come to be driven by the policy’s least-popular items. That’s especially true if the opposition launches an extended campaign against it.
The ACA also highlights an important difference between how policymakers and the public think about a complex policy. For the ACA’s architects, the legislation was an integrated whole, with various provisions working in tandem to increase access to comprehensive insurance. The individual mandate, for example, wasto driving younger, healthier people to buy insurance and to keep overall costs down.
Dan Hopkins is a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, and his research focuses on American elections and public opinion.
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