The price of oil is heading for a late April high.
The last posting about the oil price on February 17th pointed to higher prices into April. Oil was at $55.59 per barrel and has risen 5.3% to date. As mentioned in February, oil reached the $55.66 level which is significant because price exceeded the 38.2% retracement level of the October-December decline.As we can see below, oil has entered the most bullish season of the year.March and April have been the two most bullish months for the oil price.
*Oil was down from late September through late December. When this has occurred in the past, price has been higher four months later in 18 of 22 cases . In other words, if oil sells off in the fourth quarter, the seasonal tendency to rally in March-April is enhanced *If oil has risen in the first half of March, as it has, price has been higher in 16 of 21 cases one month later. This points to the late April time period denoted by the monthly cycleCycles Research Investments LLC
Here is an update of a sentiment measure. The ratio of 2 ETFs graphed below is a measure of sentiment. The UCO rises by twice the price of oil and the USO rises by one time the price of oil. A high ratio is an indicator of bullish sentiment while a low ratio is an indication of caution. Note that the last high in this ratio was the high in the oil price. The ratio is at a low level, an indication of very reserved optimism toward oil and not representative of a top.
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