Timing matters immensely. Had Chinese officials had relaxed restrictions at the beginning of March, the Chinese population could have experienced a second wave of infections as early as August.
Tune into ABC at 1 p.m. ET and ABC News Live at 4 p.m. ET every weekday for special coverage of the novelIn January, the Chinese government took extreme measures trying to contain the novel coronavirus, including rapidly isolating suspected cases, confirmed cases and close contact, in addition to strictly limiting individuals' mobility. Other countries similarly have deployed these measures in hopes of"flattening the curve," aka slowing the spread of the virus.
A patient wears a protective mask and gloves while waiting for COVID-19 testing outside Elmhurst Hospital Center, March 27, 2020, in New York.In both papers, researchers mathematically modeled human travel and human contact patterns in China using assumptions from prior studies on the early stages of the pandemic, which initially was reported in Wuhan.
A second study, published in The Lancet Public Health, used mathematical models to further support the idea that physical distancing and travel restrictions helped Wuhan get its epidemic under control. People wearing facemasks receive free meal boxes given out by Gingko House restaurant workers and volunteers in Hong Kong on March 27, 2020.Measures that seemed drastic at the time, according to the data, have in fact proved quite effective in China. After closing schools and businesses, Wuhan saw COVID-19 cases decrease, and the region's peak in cases likely was delayed. In short, these measures flattened the curve.
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