From WSJopinion: Though few have noticed, the central bank is already slowing the growth of the money supply, write Phil Gramm and Thomas R. Saving
the House Banking Committee “it would be a mistake” to tighten monetary policy “at a time when virtually all forecasters” believe that inflation “will come down” on its own. His message couldn’t have been clearer: Mr. Powell isn’t in a hurry to start paring the Fed’s monthly purchases of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities, and the Fed plans to continue monetary easing into 2022.
to an unprecedented $1.26 trillion at the end of June from $272 billion in April, pulling almost a trillion dollars of liquidity out of the financial system. Reverse-repo borrowing has reduced bank reserves, even as the Fed has continued to buy Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.fell from around 25% in 2020 to around 10% on an annualized basis in the first six months of 2021. It was less than 4% in the last quarter.
If all this seems confusing, remember: This isn’t your father’s Fed. The central bank has bought 76.4% of all the federal debt issued during the pandemic, almost nine times the share of federal debt purchased by the Fed during World War II. The Fed now holds 33.6% of all publicly held federal debt, roughly the same percentage of the debt held by all other American investors combined. The Fed also holds 35% of all federally insured mortgage-backed securities.
The commercial banking system has been profoundly transformed as the Fed balance sheet has exploded. By paying interest on reserves, the Fed has made reserves an interest-bearing asset for the banking system and a liability of the Fed, allowing the Fed to borrow from banks to acquire securities without expanding the money supply. The private banking system now holds more
than it has outstanding commercial and industrial loans. Remarkably, the Fed is now borrowing more money from the private banking system than all private commercial borrowers combined.
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