Opinion: How to reduce Putin's expectations and resolve uncertainty in the year-old Ukraine war [Opinion]
Russia’s dogged pursuit of its original war aims to dismember and subjugate Ukraine has by now revealed to the global West that Putin will not stop while he retains power in Moscow, so Russia must be halted by military means. The Ukrainian battlefield successes have persuaded the West that Ukraine can reverse Russia’s gains as long as it is provided with the necessary equipment, ammunition and aid.
The Russians know this, so their strategy is to undermine that will in the hopes that Ukraine will eventually be forced into concessions. This strategy is very difficult because it requires both racing to achieve results — before Western aid makes prospects of success very low — and, at the same time, delaying so that anti-war sentiment in the West, propelled by Russian disinformation campaigns, can corrode support for Ukraine.
The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are stalling for time because they need to receive and integrate the Western weapons for their counteroffensive, but in doing this, they risk a Russian breakthrough that could work to their disadvantage. Under the present circumstances, peace negotiations are impossible. Both sides believe they have the potential to achieve more favorable outcomes on the battlefield, and are unwilling to countenance any concessions. Two key Russian demands — for Ukraine to “demilitarize” and for it to become “neutral” — cannot be satisfied because deterring future Russian revisionism requires Ukraine to maintain both internal capability in the form of a large army and external support in the form of an alliance.
For peace to have any chance, Putin’s war expectations must be reduced and the uncertainty about the war’s trajectory must be resolved on the battlefield. This requires the West to signal unwavering support for Ukraine as well as supplying all the required weapons, ammunition and logistical support right now. Anything else gives Putin hope that continuing the war could produce a collapse in Western support, which would prolong the war and vastly increase the number of casualties on both sides.
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