Putin is facing military humiliation. Experts say he could escalate the war.
. As George Beebe, a former director of Russia analysis at the CIA, pointed out to me, over the past 10 to 15 years Putin has given the nationalist right more and more space to dominate Russia’s news and political discourse — and now they’re strongly positioned to pressure him to move to a full-fledged war footing.
Ashford described Putin as facing a classic authoritarian dilemma. If he were to move to fully mobilize Russia toward war, that could make the war less popular as the costs of the war are more fully felt by society. But the alternative of admitting that Ukraine can’t be defeated and looking for a negotiated settlement would infuriate nationalist elites who can damage Putin’s reputation and make his domestic standing vulnerable.
Putin is likely particularly concerned about the nationalist pressure campaign, which is much larger and more influential than the war skeptic crowd, analysts say. He has been pushing the country in a nationalist direction for years, and while he's sought to quash pro-democracy dissent, the ultra-nationalists have space and credibility in media and social media.
None of this is to say escalation is inevitable. But any optimism should be cautious, as Ukraine and its supporting coalition are not yet out of the woods. If Russia were to commit to a full-scale mobilization, that could mean more troops on the ground, more deployment of serious military equipment, and more risk of escalation of war with NATO.
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