'Trump lost these midterms decisively...while Biden is doing historically well in these midterms.'
Over the past 40 years, midterm elections have typically quiet affairs in which only 38% to 40% of voters show up at the polls, and those who vote skew toward the older, wealthier and whiter spectrum of the electorate. In contrast, in presidential election years, the turnout tends to be between 58% and 66% .The 2022 midterms, however, looked more like a presidential election, following on the unusual turnout in the 2018 midterms of 53%. Yesterday’s tally will rival that one and likely exceed it.
The Jan. 6 Insurrection cast a long shadow over this midterm, with prominent Republicans taking a Trumpian position in favor of election denial. There is reason to believe that the public had a great deal of concern about the future of democracy were Trump’s Republican Party to dominate the outcome heavily.
One consideration is that favorable/unfavorable numbers for a president in polling do not now mean what they did 20 years ago. In
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