Oscars Math: Does Playing a Real Person Increase an Actor's Odds?

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Oscars Math: Does Playing a Real Person Increase an Actor's Odds?
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Does playing historical figure give an actor a leg up in the Oscars race?

. As they vie for the statuettes, it begs the question: Does one group have an advantage over the other?

1. A historical figure is any character based on a real-life person. That includes not only famous people — like Ben Kingsley's Oscar-winning portrayal of Mahatma Gandhi in — but also lesser-known individuals: Albert Finney as Edward Masry in2. Historical figures also include characters based on real people whose names or details were changed.

Although best supporting actress is the least likely of the four acting categories to have a nominee based on a real person, it also played host to the longest streak of consecutive winning historical roles.

The black curve in the chart shows the trend here, which is rising over the decades. The only two Oscar ceremonies where more than half of all acting nominees were nonfiction occurred quite recently, in 2013 and 2015, at 60 percent .

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