A coda to pandemic-induced demand.
The PC market had a rough first quarter, with both IDC and Canalys reporting that worldwide shipments of desktops and laptops suffered a drop of around 30 percent in the first quarter of 2023 versus the same quarter in 2022. IDC reports a drop of 29 percent to 56.9 million units, while Canalys reports a drop of 32.6 percent to 54 million units.
Although all five of the biggest manufacturers suffered double digit declines, Apple appears to have been hardest hit. IDC reports that its shipments dropped by 40.5 percent, while Canalys is reporting a drop of 45.5 percent. Both research houses suggest the Mac manufacturer’s market share has also dropped by between one and two percentage points.The drop in Mac shipments isn’t exactly a surprise.
There appear to be a couple of interrelated reasons for the drop. One is the end of the explosion in demand that’s occurred over the past couple of years as everyone stocked up on computer hardware to allow employees and students to study and work from home. But this doesn’t tell the full story, since IDC notes that this quarter’s shipments were “noticeably lower” than pre-pandemic levels.
Both IDC and Canalys suggest that demand will pick up in the second half of 2023 and 2024. “By 2024, an aging installed base will start coming up for refresh,” said IDC’s Linn Huang. “If the economy is trending upwards by then, we expect significant market upside as consumers look to refresh, schools seek to replace worn down Chromebooks, and businesses move to Windows 11.” However Huang also cautions that “if recession in key markets drags on into next year, recovery could be a slog.
There’s apparently at least one upside to this drop in demand according to IDC: supply chains are getting some breathing space to recover, allowing PC makers to explore options
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