A dip in mortgage rates pushed eager buyers to act and drove pending home sales higher. But the strong U.S. economy is helping drive mortgage rates up again, and the slowdown in demand will ultimately hit home prices.
The numbers: U.S. pending home sales rose 8.1% in January, according to the monthly index released Monday by the National Association of Realtors , with sales rising for the second month in a row.Pending home sales beat analyst expectations. Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the pending home sales index to rise by 0.9%.Pending home sales reflect transactions for which a contract has been signed for an existing home but the sale has not yet closed.
The NAR expects existing-home sales to drop in 2023 by 11.1%, to a total of 4.47 million units. They expect home sales to improve only in 2024, when they anticipate the number to jump by 17.7% to 5.26 million units sold. The slowdown in demand will ultimately hit home prices, NAR said. The group expects existing-home prices to fall nationally by 1.6% in 2023, to $380,100.
“But an annual gain in home sales will not occur until 2024,” he added. “Meanwhile, home prices will be steady in most parts of the country with a minor change in the national median home price.”
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