Are non-white voters really moving away from the Democratic Party? To partisan Democrats confronting this question on Twitter (sorry, X), it seems preposterous that the party of Donald Trump, whom they routinely call a racist, could be gaining support from blacks, Hispanics, and Asians.
But the evidence for eroding non-white support for Democrats is strong. The New York Times’s analyst Nate Cohn, who back in June 2016 was the first to identify Donald Trump’s appeal to previously Democratic-voting white non-college graduates, noted earlier this month that Joe Biden was carrying just 53% of non-whites in 2022-23 New York Times/Siena College polls — far under the 70%-plus he was winning among these voters in November 2020.
The picture of rich businessmen on one side of the partisan divide and blistered-handed working men on the other may be familiar to writers born in the 1970s, like McArdle and Carney, and it certainly was to one growing up, as I did, in Big Three- and UAW-dominated Michigan in the 1950s. It warms many a liberal heart to see oneself as the unselfish backer of the toiling masses.
After all, it’s been 59 years since Barry Goldwater voted against the Civil Rights Act of 1964, when black people started voting near-unanimously Democratic. That’s just a little less than the 70 years after Abraham Lincoln pushed through the 13th Amendment when black people near-unanimously supported Republicans.
This movement of downscale voters is also evidenced, as University of Virginia Center for Politics analyst Kyle Kondik wrote this month, by a widening divergence in partisan preference between large- and small-population counties.
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