Perspective: As oceans rapidly warm because of climate change, an urgent need to improve hurricane forecasts
Hurricane Michael on the morning of Oct. 10, 2018. By Paul Douglas April 16 at 12:07 PM In the past two hurricane seasons, record-breaking floods have engulfed our coastal zones in the Carolinas and Texas as storms have drawn more water and grown larger from rapidly warming oceans.
“The extra heat from increasing gases from carbon dioxide doesn’t necessarily go into the ocean uniformly,” Trenberth said in a recent interview. “There are increasing indications that the regional manifestations of the ocean heat content — where those spots are warmer — actually matters for subsequent climate over the next six months or so.”
During an extreme hurricane, spiral arm bands wrap around the center so intensely that the storm forms a new eyewall, cutting off moisture flow to the old eyewall, which begins to collapse. The result: The storm temporarily weakens in strength but expands in size. Trenberth speculates the latest high-resolution weather models overintensify tropical systems that assume a constant sea-surface temperature, not fully taking into account their cold wake. Accurate prediction of hurricane eyewall replacement cycles and intensification may require near-real-time, high-resolution data from the upper oceans and Gulf of Mexico.
“In places like the gulf and East Coast, they could program those to come up and down more frequently,” Trenberth speculated. “The result would be a more comprehensive understanding of upper-ocean water temperature profiles, giving forecasters the ability to gauge whether a hurricane’s cold wake may be resupplied with additional warming at the surface, thus prolonging the storm.”
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