Does this China phase 1 mini-deal inspire any confidence? The way U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is putting it, the success of the deal is all dependent on Beijing
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Xi Jinping is in charge here. If he wants the hardliners to rule the day, they will. If he wants a more moderate or reform-minded group within the Communist Party to rule, then they will.“We don’t actually know what’s up yet with this trade deal,” says Morgan Harting, a fund manager for Alliance Bernstein. “My inclination is to pay attention to the actual announced policies. Until I see it in something like the Federal Register, then I won’t know what the facts of this deal are.
“Maybe if this includes energy exports,” says Craig Allen, the Council’s president, thinking out loud. Markets are semi-euphoric about no December tariffs and a rollback of some existing tariffs 30 days after the deal gets signed next month, but risks remain. The phase one trade deal is on a razor’s edge.
Some of that risk includes being more beholden to China. If losing some $17 billion in agricultural exports to China due to the trade war was tough for farmers, imagine a much larger market, with China taking some $50 billion away from American agribusiness in the future. “Allowing a centrally-planned economy a dominant position in global trade and finance will inevitably infect the rest of the world with the inefficiencies inherent in central planning,” says Brian McCarthy, chief strategist for Macrolens, an independent investment research firm and a close China watcher.
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