Here’s who we’re backing when the Phillies play the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.
Over the past month and against left-handed pitching, the Diamondbacks rank third inTheir 140 mark indicates they’ve been 40 percent better at run production against that side than the league average during the stretch. The lefty is having a “meh” year, with a 4.70 ERA and underwhelming underlying statistics. The Snakes should take advantage. Arizona starting pitcher Merrill Kelly is a guy I usually try to back.
He’s due for slight regression , but his strikeout and ground-ball rates are up 5 percent from last season, so he’s generating more whiffs and weak contact. The Phillies are no better than a league-average offense against right-handed pitching, so I’m very comfortable backing Kelly in this spot.Arizona also has a slight advantage in the bullpen and a monster advantage in the field.
By reliever expected FIP, the Snakes boast a top-10 bullpen while the Phillies are closer to the league average. And by Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, the Diamondbacks are one of the best defensive teams in baseball, while the Phillies are one of the worst.
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