Poland has become the face of Western resolve and strength in the face of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but the country’s divisive internal politics and tense relations with the European Union — and more pointedly Germany — are on full display ahead of October elections that most here say are shaping up as the most consequential since the collapse of communism in 1989.
It’s a contest pitting the ruling Law and Justice party, whose staunchly conservative government has held power since 2015, against a liberal establishment headed by former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who promises to repair Warsaw’s relations with the EU and keep the country on a path to democracy in line with the powers that be in Brussels.
Some in the ruling party have gone so far as to stoke memories of Poland’s difficult past under German occupation in World War II by portraying Mr. Tusk as a Nazi — a characterization that dramatically underscores how divisive the political rhetoric has become here ahead of the Oct. 15 vote. Mr. Tusk has since vowed on the campaign trail to reverse the trend and free up the frozen EU aid if he regains power.
The result finds the Law and Justice government enjoying an edge that extends across domestic ideological lines precisely because of the outsized role the party has embraced for Poland in response to the war and the wider threat of Russian military aggression toward Europe — aggression many Poles, regardless of their personal politics, say is not being taken seriously enough by neighboring Germany and other countries in Western Europe.
“If Russia is not defeated in a decisive way, meaning not only pushed out of Ukraine, but defeated in a way that it loses its economic power and is subdued in a decisive way, it will rebuild its military capacity, not in two or three years but in a decade and we’re going to have the same problem again,” said Ms. Rybinska, who is also associated with the Warsaw Institute.
“There is great mistrust in the region toward German policy because Germany was pushing prior to the Ukraine war for cooperation with Russia,” said Mr. Pawlowski. “They were building the Nord Stream 2 [oil and gas pipeline], and they involved Russia strongly in the European energy market and other sectors, and it proved to be absolutely wrong and dangerous for the security and the economy of the European Union.
The party was famously close with former President Donald Trump, who paved the way for increased U.S. energy sector coordination with Poland on a visit to Warsaw in 2017. On that trip, Mr. Trump also praised Polish President and Law and Justice party stalwart Andrzej Duda for his leadership in pushing the so-called “Three Seas Initiative.”
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