Polls since the second debate show Kamala Harris slipping. NateSilver538 breaks down the numbers:
I said last week that I was on the verge of moving Sanders back into Tier 1, and I’m going to go ahead and do that. I still have, most notably that the data suggests that he potentially has a high floor but a low ceiling. But I also have a lot of concerns about Harris, who I’ve demoted into Tier 1c — and who has fallen to a pretty clear fourth place in the polls.
In fact, other than Biden and Warren , none of the candidates has a particularly compelling theory of the case right now. Sanders’s is something like: Hope voters get tired of Biden; hope Warren stalls out, perhaps because she’s competing with too many other candidates for white, college-educated voters; win a couple of the early states with, say, 25 percent of the vote, and then hope the party rallies around you.
I’m also slightly moving up Beto O’Rourke, which comes after a long series of downgrades for the Texan. Partly I just think I’d been overreacting before in demoting him below the likes of Amy Klobuchar and Julián Castro, both of whom O’Rourke polls slightly better than. But he’s also been forceful in responding to President Trump —
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