Primary challenges might keep these Republican senators from voting to remove Pres. Trump. via FiveThirtyEight
*Race rating is the median rating from Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report.
**This is a special election, and the date hasn’t officially been set, so there is no filing deadline yet. FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent.
Granted, coming up with any scenario where 20 Republican senators vote to remove Trump from office — the minimum needed if all 47 Democrats voted in favor — is challenging to begin with, but it’s even harder if Sens. Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Martha McSally and Thom Tillis are off the table because they fear a primary challenger.
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