As the quarterback goes, so goes the team. Here are the rankings of all 32 starting quarterbacks, with advice on how to bet the season based on the signal-callers.
No position in all of American sports is more important than quarterback.
We needn’t say much about Tom Brady, either. The old man led the league in attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns last season while being sacked the fewest times of any starter. Brady’s quick release will be especially important this fall as he’s tested with Tampa’s interior offensive line woes.
I believe Justin Herbert will be a Tier I guy in time, but he might be a Tier I talent in a Tier X scheme. Herbert has a huge arm but ranked just 21st in air yards per throw and posted terrible early-down metrics. It’s great that Herbert can bail out the Chargers on third-and-long, less great that he gets so much practice at it. Still, Herbert is the whole package. Yes, that’s Josh Allen all the way down at No. 7.
And then there’s Lamar Jackson, who is unlike any other QB in the NFL, maybe ever. Jackson fought through COVID and injuries last year, both his own and the rest of the roster, and his metrics cratered. He’s an elite runner. By many measures, the most valuable one in the league — and he flat-out wins.
Ryan Tannehill is boring and overlooked. He also ranks third in the NFL in EPA over the past three seasons, behind only Mahomes and Rodgers. Seems good! The bottom falls out in the playoffs and there are too many mistakes between the turnovers and sacks, but the good continues to be really good. Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr are the Spider-Man meme. Their three-year numbers are remarkably similar.
I can’t quit Baker Mayfield. His numbers last year were poor, but he played hurt and had little help. Still just 27 years old, I’m not sure the Baker book has been written yet. The only problem? With a league-worst coaching staff and poor blocking, I’m not sure he will get a great chance in Carolina.
Like Jones, Tagovailoa has a nice completion rate that might be artificially inflated by schemes designed to hide him. The difference is Miami’s system might actually be designed to hide its abysmal O-line and lack of receiving talent, and the Dolphins took big strides in both areas and also added a smart play caller. Tagovailoa is effectively the same age as Jones, and he’s 13-8 as a starter. Let’s see how he looks in a better environment. 24.
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