“If China and America were to fall into the ‘Thucydides trap’—a seemingly inevitable conflict between a rising power and a declining one—the flashpoint of course would be Taiwan,” argues radeksikorski in The Economist
If China and America were to fall into the “Thucydides trap”—a seemingly inevitable conflict between a rising power and a declining one—the flashpoint of course would be Taiwan. Both countries’ forces war-game the conflict and it looks like an armed confrontation is a real possibility. China’s traditional tactics, derived from the board game Go rather than chess, is to gain so many small advantages as to convince a potential adversary to give up without a fight.
What should Europe do? President Biden’s trip to NATO in June was all about stabilising the eastern flank of the alliance and wooing European allies to the challenges ahead. In fact, leaving Afghanistan was part of America’s reorientation towards new threats. If America is to devote all its attention to China, then Russia should be persuaded to stay on the sidelines and Europe, starting with Germany, brought on board.
Europe’s military interests are different from America’s as well. The NATO treaty covers the mostly North Atlantic region and its mutual guarantees do not apply in Asia. Nor do we have any interests to protect so far from our shores. I predict that the European Union and its member states will want to collaborate with America on China on almost everything, except in the military sphere.
In the next few years, Europe should also prepare for the possibility that rivalry with China preoccupies America, weakening its traditional security guarantees. Politics aside, America has abandoned its ambition of having a military capable of fighting two wars at the same time. The mess in Afghanistan marked an ignoble departure but America still has the world’s biggest armed forces—though it may be reluctant to use them other than to protect its vital national interests.
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