Recession outlook: Why plunging labor productivity is bad for economy

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Recession outlook: Why plunging labor productivity is bad for economy
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Everyone is getting less productive, and that's a big problem for the economy

red-hot jobs market

But make no mistake, negative forces are pulling the economy down — and one of the primary ones is difficult to feel in real time. That would be, which measures the efficiency of the work done by a company and its employees by comparing output to hours worked. The recent decline in productivity can be seen in the chart below. Note that the downward inflection point came at the end of 2021, after which the line declined meaningfully for the first time in more than a decade. Labor productivity has fallen for five straight quarters year-over-year, the longest such streak on record.

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