Goldman Sachs strategists led by Jan Hatzius said the probability of an economic downturn within the next 24 months is 38%.
Former EY Global Chairman and CEO Mark Weinberger argues that Americans are facing ‘unprecedented inflation.’In a Monday analyst note, Goldman strategists led by Jan Hatzius said the probability of an economic downturn within the next 24 months is 38%. While that forecast is lower than some of their Wall Street peers, the analysts admitted risks to the outlook have grown over the past month.
"Surpluses generated today by households and high-yield businesses bolster the outlook for consumer spending and business investment—and will help offset the [Fed] policy and inflation headwinds," the analysts wrote. "The healthy private sector financial balance widens the Fed’s narrow runway for a soft landing."
Traders are now pricing in a 100% chance of at least a half-point rate jump at the conclusion of policymakers' meeting on Wednesday. It would mark the first time since 2000 that the U.S. central bank raised the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. Still, he acknowledged the difficulty of the task ahead and said it is "absolutely essential" for central bankers to restore price stability.
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