'A lot of the predictions from May did not forecast the continuation of record warm sea surface temperatures. It’s very rare for most models to forecast continuations of records,' Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA, said on Thursday.
NOAA scientists on Thursday forecast this year has a 60% chance of above-average hurricane activity, up from their previous estimate of a 30% chance.
A satellite image of Hurricane Don at 6:20 PM EDT on July 22, 2023 in the Atlantic. Don was the first hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.NOAA scientists increased the chance that this year will be an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% on Thursday.The forecast revision decreased the likelihood of near-normal activity to 25% from 40% chance announced in May.
The sea surface temperature for June and July in the main region where tropical storms develop in the North Atlantic was the warmest since NOAA records began in 1950, Rosencrans said, and are 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. The revised estimate of 14 to 21 named storms puts this year close to last year when there were 14 named storms and relatively close to 2021, when there were 21 named storms. There were 30 named storms in 2020, "so we've seen some pretty busy years recently," Rosencrans said.
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