The world’s food system was under strain even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Now—compounded by the war’s effect on trade and a corresponding spike in global fuel prices—it faces two dangerous and intertwined crises.
In the short term, Russia’s war on Ukraine increases the risk of extreme hunger for millions more people. The danger is particularly acute for low-income countries that depend on food imports. And countries such as Ethiopia and Yemen already are dealing with hunger fueled by conflict.
“We were already running short of the monies we were needing because of multiple conflicts around the world like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria, Yemen,” David Beasley, the organization’s executive director, told NPR. “On top of that, we’ve had climate shocks, two years of Covid, economic devastation and, just when you think it can’t get any worse, Ukraine.”
‘Extremely bleak picture’ Dozens of countries—including some of the world’s poorest and most food-deficient—depend on Russia and Ukraine for more than a third of their wheat supplies, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. “It’s an extremely bleak picture,” said Faruki, who recently returned from a two-week visit to the country.
“And the energy crisis is very central and tied to what’s happening in Yemen and other contexts in the world where you see rising fuel prices, people not being able to put food on the table,” Faruki added. “So I’d hope that we don’t isolate these things.” The FAO estimates that an additional 13 million people could be classified as undernourished over the next year. If food prices remain high and harvests suffer from a lack of fertilizers, since natural gas is raw input in the production of fertilizers used globally, Wellesley said there is a risk that figure could grow much higher.Drought conditions in the U.S.
But in many places, governments are taking a different approach—looking to relax long-term climate action in favor of achieving short-term food and energy security. Around 23 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture, forestry and other land use. Expanding cropland into forests or grasslands, which naturally absorb excess carbon in the atmosphere, could release millions of tons CO2, exacerbating climate change and loss of biodiversity, according to WRI. A recent study in Nature found that about half of new cropland area in the past two decades replaced natural vegetation and tree cover.
That said, experts said the world can’t simply produce its way out of either an energy crisis or a food crisis.
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