China will witness the dawn of a “new era”: that of Xi Jinping, in total control for as long as he wishes WorldAhead
account of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides concluded that the conflict was the consequence of growing Athenian power instilling fear in Sparta. In “The Thucydides Trap”, an influential essay published in 2015, Graham Allison of Harvard University examined whether the same dynamic would apply to America and China. He identified 16 historical episodes where an established power’s position was disrupted by a challenger. In 12 of those cases the shift ended in war.
Events on the global political stage in 2022 will reinforce that view. Starting with the Winter Olympics in February and culminating with the 20th Communist Party congress later in the year, China will stage a series of tightly choreographed events designed to project the competence, clout and all-round superiority of party rule, and formalise Mr Xi’s position at its helm beyond the ten-year tenure that has hitherto been the norm.
As the year goes on, the near certainty that, health permitting, Mr Trump will be the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 means America’s political debate will be overshadowed by fears of the biggest constitutional crisis since the civil war. Outside America, those who thought Mr Trump an awful aberration will be shaken by the prospect of a comeback.
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