Six months in to the invasion and Russia is facing a long, grinding “war of attrition” that causes widespread death, destruction and displacement in Ukraine.
Times have changed, however, and while Russia's position in the Donbas is relatively secure, its hold on southern Ukraine appears somewhat less stable.Russian troops in recent months have pulled out of Snake Island and occupied areas, such as Crimea and Kherson . Russian forces are also witnessing an increasing number of Ukrainian strikes in what could be the start of a much-vaunted counteroffensive by Kyiv's forces to retake its lost territory in the south.
Sam Ramani, a geopolitical analyst and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, said there had been something of a reversal in Russia's fortunes since the start of the invasion. In July, Ukraine announced with great fanfare that it would launch a counteroffensive in the south, but many analysts have been left asking where and when that may take place.
Hess said the outlook was likely to resemble a quagmire, both physically on the ground and on a geopolitical level, with neither side able to make advances and no impetus for a return to cease-fire negotiations after talks failed earlier this year. Nonetheless, the Russian public is still seen to be widely supportive of the war. This is perhaps unsurprising given the ubiquitous presence of pro-war propaganda broadcast by the state-run or pro-Kremlin press and fears of reprisals when speaking out against the invasion.Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with the head of the Republic of Mordovia Artyom Zdunov in Moscow, Russia July 5, 2022.
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