College football odds, picks and prediction for Sam Houston State Bearkats vs New Mexico State Aggies. Week 7 betting free pick and game analysis.
While these offenses may have glaring issues, we're dealing with one of the lowest totals of the week at 41.5. Read our Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State betting picks to find out which way we're leaning.It’s the most wonderful time of the year: Fall, when football is on TV every day of the week.
The advanced metrics don’t paint a different picture, either, as the Bearkats check in dead last in success rate and second last in EPA per play. I’ll bet that Sam Houston continues its offensive improvement in its softest matchup of the season to date. Thehave struggled defensively, ranking 105th in EPA per play and 111th in success rate. It’s a red flag anytime you allow UMass to rack up 7.2 yards per play in a game, and surrendering 6.
Dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia has been terrific, averaging 10.4 yards per attempt through the air while leading the team with 314 rushing yards. The offensive front has been incredible, ranking second nationally in line yards. This SGP is a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Over as outlined above. A correlated play with the Over involves Bearkats wide receiver Noah Smith to score a touchdown.
The final leg features the Bearkats to cover the spread. They’ve been coming close — very close — to notching their first FBS win and will have another shot to do so here. The offense has been improving and the defense is the second-best unit on the field, so this could be a close game. Sam Houston opened as high as +6 at some shops but has since been bet down to +3.5 across the board. The total has also seen some movement, dropping from 44.5 at open to 41.5 at current.
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