Armed with machine learning, manufacturers could prepare stockpiles of vaccines and therapies before pathogens have mutated and spread
variant of covid-19 continues to spread across large parts of the world, the shame is that vaccines are still in such short supply. Worse, they are being hogged by rich countries even though the need elsewhere is so great. For that, blame politics. The triumph, however, is that vaccines exist at all. And for that, praise science.
And yet scientists could do even better. By the beginning of 2021, according to our statistical model of excess deaths, the pandemic had claimed between 4m and 8m lives. If mass vaccination had got under way even a bit sooner and scaled up just a little more quickly, hundreds of thousands of people could have been saved. That is a goal worth striving for in the next pandemic—and, recent research suggests, it is entirely possible.
Armed with these predictions, manufacturers could prepare stockpiles of vaccines and therapies before pathogens have mutated and spread. One day, people could even be vaccinated pre-emptively. Such a degree of preparedness, and the rapid deployment of doses that it will make possible, could save many lives.
Such facilities ought to be ready for the next pandemic, relying on rapid, purpose-built genetic testing that has only just started to come online in airports around the world. By the time the next pathogen arrives, the same technology which allows the covid-19 testing centre in Berlin’s new Brandenburg airport to turn around a sample in less than an hour should be widely available.
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