Charney Report: Scientists predicted man-made climate change 40 years ago this week
has increased by about 0.66 degrees Celsius, almost exactly what could have been expected if a doubling of CO2 produces about 2.5 degrees Celsius warming—just a bit below their best estimate. A remarkably prescient prediction.Despite the high regard in which the authors of the Charney Report were held by their scientific peers at the time, the report certainly didn't lead to immediate changes in behaviour, by the public or politicians.
In this case, their very specific prediction was that warming of between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 4.5 degrees Celsius would accompany a doubling of atmospheric CO2. At the time, global temperatures, in the absence of their hypothesis and science, might have been expected to stay pretty much the same over the ensuing 40 years, cooled a bit, possibly even cooled a lot, or warmed a lot .
The Charney Report's authors didn't just uncritically summarise the science. They also acted sceptically, trying to find factors that might invalidate their conclusions. They concluded:
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