The next five days are best spent paying attention to trustworthy forecasts and preparing for hazardous conditions.
Dennis Mersereau
The odds for hazardous conditions in Florida will drop if Tropical Storm Dorian gets ripped apart by the mountains of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola. Folks in Florida will need to take steps to get ready for the storm if Dorian makes it across the island in one piece and manages to recover over open waters. We’ll know more on Thursday once the system crosses from the Caribbean to the Atlantic.The cone of uncertainty is the most important part of a tropical cyclone forecast.
It’s tempting to focus on the center line and specific points on the forecast maps, especially when the forecast calls for a landfall, but it’s important to remember that the cone shows us a range of possibilities and it only applies to the center of the storm. The wind, rain, and storm surge of a storm can extend hundreds of miles away from the center of circulation, and these hazards are not represented by the cone of uncertainty.Wind gets top billing in any tropical cyclone forecast.
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