To thwart a resurgent populist party, Spanish moderates should make common cause
LOOKED AT FROM outside, Spain appears to be doing pretty well. Its strong economic recovery from the euro crisis continues, albeit at a slower pace than in the past. Unemployment, though still high, is down to almost half its peak. Bars and restaurants heave with tourists and with Spaniards who once again have cash to spend. Despite that, the country has just been proclaimed the world’s healthiest.
The first worry involves Catalonia and the aftershocks from the unconstitutional drive for independence by the regional administration there in 2017. This was contained, partly by judicial overreach. A dozen separatist leaders, nine of whom have been in jail for up to 16 months, are now being tried in the Supreme Court on charges potentially punishable by long prison terms. The trial has reinforced tribal loyalties. Polls suggest that some 2m Catalans still want to leave Spain.
Vox is also a manifestation of a third concern: the increasing fragmentation of what was a stable two-party system. It is almost inevitable that Spain is heading for a third successive hung parliament. The problem is that the country still needs a strong, reformist administration. Little has been achieved since the PP lost its absolute majority in 2015. To sustain economic growth and social progress, Spain needs to reform education, training and the welfare state.
These problems would test even experienced statesmen. But all the main political leaders are young and relatively green. Though not faultless, Pedro Sánchez, the Socialist prime minister since June, has at least tried to ease the tensions in Catalonia. That, however, prompted howls of outrage on the right and ultimately helped bring down his government.
The biggest worry is that the three largest parties—and especially the PP and Ciudadanos—are expending more energy on squabbling among themselves than in confronting Spain’s problems. Emotion and short-term electoral calculation are trumping the national interest. Given that the PP is still rebuilding itself after a long period in office, Spain’s best hope of reform lies in a coalition between the Socialists and Ciudadanos. It is disturbing that as the campaign began Mr Rivera ruled that out .
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