A chorus of Wall Street banks say markets haven't got this recession quite priced in. Here's what could happen next:
That’s the verdict from strategists at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, who each warned as a new week kicked off that the stock market wasn’t fully pricing in a recession. And that’s as U.S. equities SPX, +2.45% were off to a solid start as trading resumed after Monday’s Juneteenth holiday.
Echoing some of Wilson’s thoughts was Goldman Sachs’s chief global equity strategist, Peter Oppenheimer, who sees the market pricing in the risk of just a mild recession, rather than an average or deep contraction. He sees the current bear market as a cyclical one, and a function of the economic cycle, according to a Goldman Sachs GS, +1.79% research note Tuesday.
The S&P 500 tends to lose one-third of its value, on average, around a recession, according to RBC Capital Markets. “The 3500 area is a big support and stress test for a secular bull market defined by the rising 200-week” moving average and the 50% retracement of the rally seen from March 2020 to January 2022, according to a market analysis note from BofA Global Research that’s dated June 20.
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