Stocks sink after President Trump says China deal can wait.
Some experts are less sanguine, saying investors have been viewing the trade war through rose-colored glasses. “Markets have been far too complacent in the whole treatment of this trade war,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “I think they’re also greatly underestimating the longer-run effects of this trade war,” he said.
On those grounds, some economists argue that the tariffs almost certainly will be suspended or delayed — the economic fallout would be too great to risk. In addition to pinching household budgets and reducing consumer spending power, more tariffs could hurt American job growth, as well. Zandi estimated that the trade war thus far has probably cost the labor market around 40,000 jobs each month. “It’s obvious in manufacturing,” he said, adding that more tariffs could accelerate job losses.writing in a pair of tweets,
But economists say trade policy, not monetary policy, is the hurdle facing American manufacturing, which dropped for the fourth month in a row, according toreleased Monday from the Institute for Supply Management. “Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue,” Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said in a statement.
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