Take Five: A spanner in the global economic works - big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming weeks
FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., November 11, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidCan we have it both ways? For two decades, trade expansion has fueled rapid global economic growth. But with trade volumes contracting at a rate of more than 1% year-on-year and the Sino-U.S trade war nearing its two-year anniversary, world growth will plumb decade-lows next year, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development predicts.
Ominously, the U.S. bond curve is flattening again. Ten-year U.S. government borrowing costs are 15 basis points away from tumbling below two-year yields, the so-called curve inversion witnessed a few months ago. A sustained inversion is a reliable predictor of recession, and more trade tensions could well take us there.U.S.
But even with so many store chains struggling, U.S. retail stocks haven’t done too badly. The S&P 500 Retailing index is up 21% for the year, not far behind the S&P 500’s 24%. And investors betting on Amazon’s domination of the industry have been burned. An ETF called ProShares Decline of the Retail Store shorts a basket of brick-and-mortar store chains and has lost 3% this year.
South Korean blue chips such as Samsung Electronics have done well but the broader equity index has trailed peers over the past 2-1/2 years. Economic growth is at its weakest in a decade and Korean workers have increasingly taken to the streets to protest job losses.
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