1/ READY FOR A SCARY EURO ZONE GDP SHOW?
FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., August 6, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Bond markets certainly fear the worst. Ten-year bunds yield a record low of almost -0.60%. The entire German government yield curve out to 30 years is now below zero. Investors are raising red flags about a euro zone recession and a resumption of European Central Bank bond buying as the escalating U.S.-China trade war hit the exporters.
U.S. July consumer price inflation, due Tuesday, has been tame in recent years and consistently below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the strong tie between unemployment and inflation was broken 20 years ago and the relationship “has become weaker and weaker and weaker.”
That 2-plus-something percent slide in the heavily managed yuan has pushed it to 2008 lows and to the weaker side of 7 per dollar. Beijing is saying it’s merely letting market forces drive the yuan, not weaponizing the currency, and has done its best through open market operations to contain the move. Chinese trade data showed that, with falling imports and exports, Beijing needs a weaker currency to support its economy.
As investors piled into safe-haven assets, Germany’s 30-year bond yield hit a record low, Ireland’s 10-year bond yield turned negative, and the Netherlands became the latest to join that growing club of countries with entire yield curves drowning in sub-zero territory.
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