The outcome of the talks with China may determine whether Trump gets his long-promised better shake from the U.S.’s biggest economic partner — or instead launches a full-blown trade war.
President Trump meets with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, left, in the Oval Office on April 4, 2019.
Trump used a Twitter post to announce the new tariff move last weekend, instantly dimming hopes that a deal was finally at hand after 10 rounds of negotiations. His top trade official,on promises it had agreed to previously. Trump said in a tweet Wednesday that the Chinese pulled back in the hopes that he might lose reelection in 2020, allowing them to get a better deal with another U.S. leader.
Trump has boasted about how great he’s been for the economy and that that is why he should be reelected in 2020. The struggle over trade has already imposed significant costs and hardships on both sides: In the U.S., it has hurt farmers, small business owners and others who are part of Trump’s electoral base; in China, it is affecting millions of workers and business leaders who have been promised a continuation of rapid growth and prosperity.
Yet the dangers of miscalculation are huge on an issue as fundamental as trade is to millions of Americans’ well-being. Eventually, the economic costs could become too high to ignore. Cailin Birch, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London, said there’s enough motivation on the U.S. side to avoid a blow-up in the talks. Her expectation: a limited deal that will be largely cosmetic, hard to implement and short-term in nature.for economic dominance,” she said.
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