Texas drought could end this year, and El Niño is behind it | Opinion
With tropical Pacific temperatures near the El Niño threshold — about 1 degree above normal — and still rising, the development of an El Niño is almost a sure thing. It has already effectively started along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, where the coastal upwelling that brings cool, nutrient-rich water to the surface has all but shut down.
In Texas, as in most of the world, the weather associated with El Niño is pretty much the opposite of La Niña. While it’s not guaranteed, the odds favor wet conditions from late fall to early spring next year, and the odds increase the stronger El Niño turns out to be. The last time we had a strong El Niño was 2015-16; that November through March was the third wettest on record for Dallas County.
It may seem a bit strange that a few degrees of temperature change in the tropical Pacific can have such a big effect on Texas weather. Well, for starters, the tropical Pacific covers a lot of territory, bigger even than the United States. When the tropical Pacific warms up, the temperature difference increases between the tropics and high latitudes, which in turn intensifies the jet stream and brings it closer to the equator.
Along coastal Peru and Ecuador, this leads to flash flooding, as cool waters usually protect them from thunderstorms. Over the Atlantic Ocean, this leads to stronger trade winds blowing from east to west, and aloft the outflow from the tops of the Pacific thunderstorms blows in the opposite direction.
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