The IMF is usually led by whichever European choice the Americans can live with. They are unlikely to object to Mark Carney
’s 189 member countries are divided into 24 constituencies of peculiar shapes and sizes. Ghana, for example, belongs to the same group as Afghanistan. Ecuador sits with East Timor. But in choosing the next boss after Christine Lagarde moves to the European Central Bank in October, the most decisive constituency may be a different group entirely: the “New Hanseatic League”. This includes eight small, northern members of the European Union with bad weather and good credit ratings.
But even in a fair race he would struggle to beat Mr Carney, who has run two of the world’s biggest central banks. And given the horse-trading between Europe and America, therace will not be entirely fair. Why, then, bother entering? Candidates from outside Europe face a Catch-22: anyone credible enough to win an unrigged race will not be crazy enough to enter a rigged one. That is a pity, because a contest might force the fund’s members to think harder about the institution’s future.
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