Beto O’Rourke becomes the latest Democrat to declare his candidacy in a wide-open primary race
may be seen as an opportunity for a wide breadth-over-depth approach to the primary. The Midwestern senator has an obvious advantage in hailing from a region where Democrats are keen on boosting numbers next November. Not least of the motivators for this strategy is, of course, that Donald Trump managed to flip three Rust Belt states in 2016 to give him the Oval Office. Ms Klobuchar’s appeal goes beyond her geographic advantage, however.
There already seems to be a Democrat for everyone in 2020, and not all of the likely candidates have declared. But according to’s analysis of polling in party nominations between 1980 and 2016, this early in a cycle just 17% of polls released have correctly identified the eventual party nominee.
There are other ways to gauge who is ahead. Betting markets provide an opportunity for prognosticators to put real money behind their arguments, and performed admirably in predicting the 2018 midterms. According to the latest numbers from PredictIt, a popular American market, Kamala Harris has opened up a meaningful lead against all of the other currently announced candidates.
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