One consistency in the data is that Elizabeth Warren runs slightly weaker than Bernie Sanders and clearly weaker than Joe Biden | Analysis by Harry Enten
Poll of the week: A new New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters across the six closest states President Donald Trump won in 2016 finds former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by an average of 1 point. Sanders trails by 1 point. Warren is down 3 points to Trump. An average of recent national polling indicates Biden, Sanders and Warren lead Trump by anywhere from 5 points for Warren to 8 points for Biden.
Beyond the polling, past electoral results give us a good look at Warren's electability argument. Her reelection margin to the Senate in 2018 was weak considering the partisan leaning of her state. She won by 24 points. The Democrats running for election to the House in Massachusetts won by 36 points. In other words, Warren ran 12 points behind her fellow Massachusetts Democrats running for federal office in 2018. For comparison, Minnesota Sen.
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