The IPCC's models of climate change—which are, more than ever before, backed up with observations—should offer a call to arms for Glasgow’s COP26
AT A KEY moment in the film “Jaws”, police chief Martin Brody, having known that a shark attack was possible, witnesses one actually happen. The director, Steven Spielberg, underlines the transformative nature of Brody’s shock with a shot which makes inspired use of a camera technique called a “dolly zoom”. Nothing on screen actually moves. But Brody’s guilty face seems to rush towards the audience, taking up more and more of the frame.
The oncoming dread registers yet more clearly than it did in the IPCC’s previous major assessment, AR5, published in 2013-14. The Earth has warmed over a tenth of a degree since then; it is now approximately 1.1ºC hotter than it was in the second half of the 19th century. Even if the countries of the world cut their greenhouse-gas emissions dramatically the IPCC finds that temperatures are very likely to be 1.5ºC higher than they were in the 19th century by 2050—if not before.
At the same time as laying out the increased difficulty of meeting that central challenge, the report also shows how much more science can now say about the nature of the change under way—providing a fuller context. It is much more assertive than its predecessors in terms of attributing changes and specific events to climate change, describing the distribution of these effects around the Earth and assessing the degree to which the weather is being pushed to new extremes.
The IPCC’s assessments represent massive commitments of time and effort on the part of researchers around the world. Each assessment consists of huge volumes produced by three different working groups; one looks at the current state of the physical science of climate change, the second assesses research on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and the third looks at what is known about the possibilities of mitigation.
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