The U.S. seems aware, if belatedly, that it is losing ground in the Middle East to Beijing.
In December 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia. Xi promised to “usher in a new era” in Chinese-Arab relations. Nearly a year later, it can be said that China has succeeded: Beijing’s influence in the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf, has grown considerably, with potentially dire consequences for the United States and its allies.
The Chinese-brokered agreement is a coup for Xi and his Chinese Communist Party. CCP propaganda has long depicted the U.S. as a destabilizing influence. The U.S., it argues, has only brought upheaval to the Middle East, while China offers both peace and development. The U.S. is both sanctimonious and unreliable. Washington offers lectures about human rights and is prone to turning on allies, from Cairo to Riyadh. By contrast, Beijing waits in the wings, willing to lend cash.
Yet Beijing’s intentions in the Middle East are not benign. And far from welcoming the advances of its chief geopolitical opponent, the U.S. should be opposing them. Chinese state media might claim that “China pursues no selfish interest whatsoever in the Middle East,” but only a fool would take the CCP at its word. China views the Middle East, long a chief battleground for great power competition, as fertile soil for countering the U.S. And it has long cultivated Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
Unsurprisingly, at times, the alliance between an Islamist monarchy and a Western democracy was tempestuous. Saudi Arabia, custodian of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, may have been an imperfect ally, but this is hardly an anomaly in the cutthroat world of international politics. The kingdom provided stability in a region plagued with palace coups, wars, and upheaval.
Although billed as an attempt to thwart Tehran’s attempts to obtain nuclear weapons, the very terms of the JCPOA enshrined Iran as a future nuclear power, its sunset clauses and provisions ensuring that the regime would one day have nuclear weapons. The administration predicated its entire Middle East policy on achieving this deal, even arming Tehran-approved proxies in its war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Allies from Ankara to Jerusalem to Riyadh were nonplussed.
Several factors have played a role in bringing the two countries closer together. The kingdom’s Saudi Vision 2030 is an ambitious development plan that seeks to bolster the private sector and promote economic diversification. The Saudi government is rightfully concerned about the long-term effects of both energy diversification and a bloated bureaucracy — and investment from Beijing promises to help offset these obstacles. But China has uses for Riyadh that extend beyond trade.
But China holds a strong hand. Beijing’s thirst for oil and its wealth make it an attractive customer. Ditto for China’s partnership with Iran, which provides the Middle Kingdom with tremendous leverage. Iran is China’s foremost Middle Eastern ally. Ties between the two have been rapidly increasing. Both countries share an interest in overturning the U.S.-led international order. Indeed, according to a 2021 study by the U.S.
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