Sportsbooks are extremely vulnerable when it comes to early-season college basketball totals. Learn how to exploit these soft numbers before they become razor-sharp in March.
The Over/Under lines on NCAA hoops games in the first couple months of the season are the most vulnerable you will find bookmakers at any point in the sports calendar. And they’ll be the first ones to tell you.Every great and powerful foe has one small weakness. The Gremlins had bright lights, the Wicked Witch of the West had water, and sportsbooks have early-season college basketball totals.
"College Hoops totals have always been the hardest thing for sportsbooks," Salmons tells Covers."Turnover in team players, referees who work the game and how they officiate it. Each game you have different refs from different conferences who are told how to call fouls or not to call fouls from a particular conference."
"Games with big teams that are constantly on TV and under the nation's magnifying glass are a lot easier to handle," says an oddsmaker for an online book."Most of the industry deals totals for TV games only for the majority of the season but that starts changing deeper into the season."So, now that you know where the oddsmakers are weakest, you’re probably wondering how to exploit that soft spot. Funny enough, books aren't shy about telling you.
"It is very difficult for oddsmakers to set totals on these games," Merril says."If you can accurately predict and handicap which team will be able to dictate the pace and tempo, you can often find value with both the side and total in this type of game."
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