Can fear of covid-19 trump fear of the vaccine?
Fortunately, hesitancy has been falling steadily. YouGov, a pollster, has run surveys about vaccination in 20 countries. Counting each country equally, in January around 45% of respondents said either that they would not get a shot or that they were unsure. By late June just 20% did.
Among the many factors that could change sceptics’ minds, two can be measured readily with national statistics. One is the pace of vaccination. The more doubters see that shots are available and that people they know have not suffered ill effects, the more willing they may be to follow suit. The other is the gravity of the pandemic. If lots of people are dying, fear of the virus might trump fear of the vaccine.
Whereas starting hesitancy levels had no effect, vaccinations and deaths were both strong predictors. Vaccinations mattered three times more, a pattern that is clearest in places the pandemic has spared.
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